How do people adopt and move ideas from one place to another? One of Paul Groth’s mentors at UC Berkeley was the famous geographer, Allan Pred. According to Paul this lecture on Innovation Diffusion that I enjoyed so much is a summary of Allan Pred’s Fall 1976 undergraduate geography course, “Information Circulation and Innovation Diffusion.” Pred then changed direction in his interests — and it was never offered again. So a good thing that Paul at least hits the high points in ED169B.
What are the basics of innovation diffusion?
(cribbed from my sketchy notes (was too busy observing Paul, thinking and being an engaged student) so thanks to Paul for access to his very complete reader — the italics are from the ED 169 Reader)
1. Diffusion is lumpy in time and space. I think “lumpy” is a Paulism which means that nothing is even and constant and regular so… The adoption of a modern, new idea in one town is not necessarily accompanied by a parallel adoption of new ideas in every other town or out on the farms. An immediate response is to wonder how the internet has totally changed diffusion of ideas, speeded up the process and in a sense encouraged ideas to morph and build on each other. And diffusion over the internet is probably also lumpy.
2. Two basic kinds of innovation (two different types of power): (a) imposed from on top–power in central control; and (b) building up from below–(power in numbers). Have been reading the book “Crowd-Sourcing” which is definitely an example of the latter — everyone getting involved in creating. In my experience, we need both.
3. Human openness to change varies: slow to fast “adoption curves” delineate these rates. There is a regularity in distribution of adoption groups; some people always tend to be the “first on the block” to exhibit a new idea. We are familiar with early and late adopters in terms of many ideas — who is the first to buy an iPad and who is not interested in testing out new technologies.
4. The essential “multi-step process”: complex changes, especially “from-the-top-down,” need the help of change agents or well-linked local opinion leaders. With the advent of new technologies, there are a growing number of different ways that people lead opinion — via new and old media and also in response of business opportunities.
5. For a major change you need two things: openness to change (or need for change) and personal contact with the major new idea. The personal contact must be strong enough to be a conversion experience: a trial-run, or knowing someone personally who made a similar change. Think about the power of “word-of-mouth” or seeing what your neighbour is up to — at home or work. And there is so much power in having an experience ourselves — using a piece of equipment, experiencing a process — to convince us to change.
6. Media information is NOT important for mind-CHANGING, but it IS essential for mind-preparing. Media advertisement from a distant source can convince you to change brands of dry breakfast cereal, perhaps; this is not the adoption of a new idea, just another version of the same idea (or a very minor innovation). My understanding of this is that media helps build the vocabulary and understanding around a possible change.
7. Some ideas are accepted more quickly than others. That is, adoption rates vary. The drinking of cappucchino diffused rather rapidly in the 1980s. Computer innovations have been diffusing almost instantaneously. However, the use of electric automobiles has not been catching on very rapidly. Is it the scale and complexity of the change that strongly influences the time frame — e.g. with the electric car there are many support systems that need to be in place — e.g. plug for plugging in, enough choice of different e-cars to buy, battery life that works for your particular needs and so on. Whereas coffee drinking is perhaps a simpler business proposition.
8. “Denovation” happens (by denovation, we mean the abandonment of an idea, whether voluntary or forced). When people later change their minds again, and drop the use of an idea, the curves have a different shape. For instance, the use of eight-track tapes. This is interesting — why do some ideas just never take off? Is it that they get replaced by something better so soon that there just isn’t any question of the preference for the new? Or?
9. Movement in SPACE of new ideas relies on either contagion (neighborhood effect) or migration (including travel). Major ideas don’t travel by themselves, they travel with people and their life-paths. For people whose life-paths are contained in a small area, conversion comes by contagion or “neighborhood” effect; converts influence their neighbors, who in turn influence their neighborhoods. People whose life-paths have long trips (or war-time travel, or lengthy visiting of relatives) can carry their conversion to new ideas in big jumps. The big jumps are not random, however, but follow migration and transportation routes. How much has this changed with the fact that we are so much more mobile. New immigrants to places do bring new ideas — how to settle into a neighbourhood and one’s daily patterns.
10. Urban systems and trade systems are important in the order of adoption of new ideas. New ideas are often brought to major cities (often for funding, manufacturing, marketing, or political reasons) and then the ideas are steered down the hierarchy of town sizes. North America is “re-urbanizing” — wonder what this will mean for idea diffusion. And we are doing more and more global collaborations — International Sustainable Cities Networks and initiatives like the Pacific Coast Collaborative.
This lecture got me thinking about the different ways that we transfer knowledge and ideas. And the importance of translation as we do so.